Afghanistan is a rough place. Who knows how the latest chapter will end for the latest Western project there. Why has it taken eight years to achieve so little of lasting value? Why is the Afghan government so poorly developed, with so little in the way of trained police and military?
Ask among the Russians. The Soviet-Afghan War lasted ten years (1979-1989); Soviet troop strength peaked at about 118,000; their casualties exceeded 13,000 killed. Perhaps a million Afghans perished. The Soviets built up the Afghan government, which was led by Mohammad Najibullah. Heavily supplied and equipped by the Russians, the Afghan government took control of the war against the mujahideen, only to fall to them after a brutal post-Soviet civil war (1989-1992). Najibullah got his family out to an Indian safe haven, but he was captured, tortured, castrated and his body hanged on a telephone pole for all to see.
The map above is roughly how things stand today, though US troop strength is up to about 65,000. Even usually neutral Sweden has a contingent in place, in a reconstruction role bordering Uzbekistan. The Swedish government intends to add another 100 or so in support roles.
The Afghan population, despite poverty and endless war, has doubled since 1979 from 13 million to 28 million. It's as if Afghans thrive in war. In wars and occupations of attrition and time, they have the advantage. But which Afghans will prevail? Or will any of them? It's questionable whether outsiders will ever achieve much of lasting value for their investment.
Today's Rune: Gateway.
2 comments:
Clausewitz warned that military action should support a clear political goal. This has obviously not been the case with Afghanistan.
This summer's election of Karzai reminds me painfully of the fraudulent election of Diem in Vietnam. Once again, we are backing a bad, corrupt horse.
How in the world could their population have grown? that's just amazing.
Post a Comment