What happens when people believe, or are led to believe, one thing, and then are confronted by evidence to the contrary? Cognitive dissonance. Belief is challenged, then belief is either changed, or reformed in a way that continues as it was, but in an altered state.
The Balloon Boy phenomenon is a dandy example. First, people are led to believe a kid is trapped inside an on-the-loose balloon floating through the sky. Some thought this preposterous to begin with, some had to take it seriously for presumed safety reasons, and others just wondered in awe. Turns out to be a hoax. My question is: why did Balloon Boy make such a big -- if short-lived -- impact in the first place?
Another set of challenges to belief are coming up in 2012. First, there's that Mayan calendar end-of-the-world hype. But there are also the Branch Davidians who believe their leader David Koresh -- slain in 1993 -- will return as the Saviour in 2012. How will those who believe in the end times of 2012 shift their beliefs if things keep humming along right into 2013? I believe we'll see soon enough. (In any case, last night MSNBC began showing a two-hour special on the Branch Davidians, Witness to Waco.)
For more on cognitive dissonance, such as related to "WMD" in Iraq, please see this earlier post:
http://eriklerouge.blogspot.com/2008/06/cognitive-dissonance-is-alive-and-well.html
From Mad Men: "The faintest ink is better than the best memory. -- Chinese proverb."
Today's Rune: Defense.
6 comments:
Somebody always profits from these prophecies and if they do not happen, provokes each time more incredulity. The not believing being humanho in nothing, badly leaves its side always more displayed that the good one. The humanity is each more fragile time. Beijus,
We've had enough time. 2012 is as good a year as any to reorder the cosmic universe.
did you ever read Michael Shermer's Why people believe Weird things? It's pretty good on the general topic.
My daughter and I were talking about 2012 and other prophecies, including those of Nostrodamus, when I drove her to school this morning-- one of her friends is obsessed with 2012. I likened prognositcations to horoscopes-- predictions that are vague enough that just about anything can be interpreted to fulfill them. In any event, I suspect that the 2012 "Chicken Littles" will feel as silly as those who predicted Y2K catostrophes.
Umberto Echo once wrote a fine essay on Millenarianism. He was mainly contrasting the atmosphere of the ate 90's with the end-of-the-world madness in Europe around the year 1000 (awful lot of folks expecting the Second Coming, then) and the fifty-year hangover that followed the world's continuing existence.
Of course, given America's long history of Utopianistic, End of Days splinter groups, cults and (if they last long enough) religions, millenial-thinking is part and parcel of the national character...
Erik, My God, haven't we got anything more interesting than that (balloon boy hoax) to focus on. Convict dad for wasting our time... Koresh however, is scary interesting....
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