Chinook Down: Earlier today, guerillas shot down a US helicopter in Afghanistan, killing thirty-one Americans and seven Afghan government soldiers. Eight insurgents were also killed in related fighting, according to a Taliban press report. Other guerillas attacked and destroyed sixteen NATO fuel tankers near the Khyber Pass. These incidents are nearly identical to ones reported thirty years ago, only they were Soviets who were killed in the previous incidents, and the insurgents then were more commonly called "freedom fighters" and Mujahideen in Western press reports.
Consider this: In the Soviet War that lasted from 1979 to 1989, Afghan guerillas suffered more than 150,000 killed; civilian losses topped that by several times. The Red Army lost more than 14,000 killed and 50,000+ wounded. That war (or that phase of the meta-war) helped bankrupt the Soviet Empire, leading to its collapse.
The Soviet Union's Afghan allies lost approximately 20,000 killed in the first ten year cycle -- then many thousands more in the Afghan Civil War (Phase I) of 1989 to 1992. The 1992-1996 Afghan Civil War (Phase II) brought the Taliban into power. More fighting continued into 2001; then began the US/NATO phase that has lasted from October 7, 2001 through this very August 6, 2011 post -- and off into the future. Note: Osama bin Laden was killed on May 1, 2011 in neighboring Pakistan. US/NATO killed to date exceed 2,600, with 13,000 plus Americans wounded (the highest in the NATO group).
Finally: The only forces who can/will keep fighting at this cost in terms of casualties and finances are the guerillas. For them it is a cheap war, and there are plenty of recklessly macho volunteers in a permanent pipeline that cost little to train and maintain on the job. The population of Afghanistan is too large to "pacify." It's now pushing close to thirty million -- nearly double the population since 1979, when the Soviets moved in for their long shot at pacification.
Like its predecessors, the 2001-2011 conflict has been a long road to nowhere for all parties involved, but only the Afghans themselves, in all their factions, will decide if and when to end the fighting. I am dubious of a peaceful settlement, let alone a "successful" one. How about you?
Today's Rune: Fertility.
8 comments:
Once the mission objective changed from finding and killing Osama bin Laden to regime change is when the US government lost all of my support for either war.
The Taliban were an Afghan problem same as Hussein was an Iraq problem, they can and should take care of their own problem but they consider themselves as vital enough for others to come in and lose blood they themselves would not shed a drop of their own for.
Face the truth of it the Afghans refuse to do anything more than take billions of foreign dollars and in return piss on the hand that hands it to them.
I will be perfectly blunt...bring ALL American troops home from everywhere and if the congress will not allow the private sector to rebuild itself by rebuilding the infrastructure then let the military do the heavy lifting. At least as veterans they will be truly serving the NEEDS of the nation and not become un-employment statistics.
Used to be a time when war pulled a country's economy out of the gutter. Now it sends it in the gutter. And our government hasn't seemed to realize that things have changed.
I am so sick of endless wars. If they are worth fighting, why is no one else fighting? I agree with TWM. Bring them home now.
I think we used to start wars for profit. Now, we use war as a permanent part of the economy. I agree -- bring all the soldiers home to fix bridges and repair schools.
Impractical? What we're doi g now is impractical.
Great post, Erik
I think I figured that for every 1 servicemember killed there are 10 injured and medicine has improved so it may be even more. Any wonder that Obama just signed a bill encouraging the hiring of vets? I'm not sure I want guys with major PTSD on my local SWAT team, are you?
Hey thanks all for the comments -- much appreciated!
That country seems to swallow up everyone who tries to vanquish it.
On one hand, I'd hate to see the return of the brutal regime in Afghanistan. On the other hand, the kleptocracy we're supporting doesn't seem much better. Time to cut our losses.
BTW, regarding Nunya's comment; a lot of the men and women who fought the Iraq and Afghanistan wars were already cops-- they used a lot of reserve military people to fight these wars. One of my nursing school classmates husband was pulled off his job as a Chicago Police detective to spend a year in Afghanistan. Talking to my friend, it's been very, very difficult. He's got PTSD and it's affected their marriage and his job.
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